In addition to the Japan Analytics Results Scores, we also track Aggregate Results by Sector using trailing twelve month data as well as Aggregate Forecasts.
On July 27th, Alpine Electronics (6816) received an offer from Alps Electric (6770), which owns 40.43% of Alpine’s shares, to buy out the remainder for 0.68 shares of Alps for each share of Alpine.
Oasis Management Company of Hong Kong, the largest minority shareholder in Alpine with a stake of 9.24%, has stated in a press release today that minority investors are not getting a ‘fair deal’ and have launched a website protectalpine.com to make their case for a higher offer from Alps. Alpine is now trading at a small premium to the offer in the hope that Oasis will prevail, as they did recently with Panahome.
There are clear issues of corporate governance concerning the process which led to this offer and the 18-month period before the offer is effective, but we shall leave this to others better qualified than Japan Analytics to comment.
Rather, we shall look at Alpine’s financial statements through the lens of the App’s residual income valuation model.
The top large cap Revision Scores for the week were:-
10 MACNICA FUJI ELECTRONICS
9 Mitsubishi Chemical
9 JCR Pharmaceuticals
The bottom large cap Revision Scores for the week were:-
-4 Hyakujushi Bank
-7 Daio Paper
-8 Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma
-10 TOPPAN FORMS
The Japan Analytics Revision Score is a measure of the deviation of the most recent revision or initial forecast from the company’s previous forecast and/or its trailing twelve-month results. The score has a maximum of 20 and minimum of -20
The top large cap Results Scores for the week were:
26 Tokai Tokyo Financial
20 Central Japan Railway
20 JCR Pharmaceuticals
20 Hitachi Construction Machinery
20 Hitachi Kokusai Electric
The bottom large cap Results Scores for the week were:
-8 NIPPON GAS
-8 FUJITSU GENERAL
-12 TOPPAN FORMS
The top large cap 3 month change in Results Scores for the week were:
16 CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL
14 SHINKO ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES
14 Kawasaki Heavy Industries
11 Nomura Research Institute
The bottom large cap 3 month change in Results Scores for the week were:
-8 Coca-Cola Bottlers Japan
-9 IMPERIAL HOTEL
-9 Kyowa Hakko Kirin
-10 Nomura Real Estate
The Japan Analytics Results Score is a measure of earnings results and momentum which covers the last eight quarters of Revenue and Operating Income. The score has a maximum of 30 and minimum of -30. The Results Score is one of 40 factors that an be ranked and screened in our App.
297 Results and 322 Forecast changes were released last week.
The trend in trailing twelve-month (TTM) results has been slower to recover and TTM operating income is still below the level of eighteen months ago, but the forecast changes are now driving the market higher.
Current aggregate TTM sales are ¥763t +0.3% on the week, operating income is ¥55.8t +0.5% and net income ¥38.4t, +0.6%. Over the last three months these numbers have risen by 1.6%, 3.9% and 6.8%, respectively. The aggregate operating margin is now 7.3% and has risen by 16bps in the last 90 days.
The aggregate sales forecast is ¥786t, +0.3% over the week. Operating income is forecast to be ¥57.9t and has risen 0.6% for the week. The net income forecast is ¥39t, +0.5%. Over the last three months these numbers have risen by 0.9%, 3.4% and 1.6%, respectively. The net income forecast has been negatively impacted by Toshiba. The aggregate forecast operating margin is now 7.4%, up 18bps in the 3 months.
With the market rising 2.2% this week, the TTM PER is now 18.9x and forecast PER is 17.9.
The outlook for results and forecasts remains robust.
The Japan Analytics All Market Composite includes all listed companies that have TTM numbers. To allow for apples-to-apples comparison, for the small number of companies that do not make forecasts, their TTM numbers are used as a proxy.